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Michael Wilson, chief US stock strategist at Morgan Stanley, warned on Monday that investors should not be fooled into believing that this year's stock market rally marks the beginning of a new bull market. Wilson said he expects the strong momentum in the stock market to not continue, despite last week's S&P 500 index breaking 4200 points for the first time in more than six months.

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He stated in a research report, "Is this the ultimate breakthrough in confirming a new bull market? The short answer is no." The strategist's basic view is that the optimistic sentiment surrounding the rise of artificial intelligence and the end of the Federal Reserve's tightening has masked "many technical signals and fundamental factors," indicating that the stock market will not enter a longer period of upward movement.

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The US stock market has been on the rise since the beginning of this year, with the S&P 500 Index up 9% and the Nasdaq Composite Index up 21%. However, most of these gains were driven by a small group of technology stocks, including Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia, which took advantage of the surge in interest in ChatGPT and artificial intelligence.

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Wilson stated that artificial intelligence may help companies reduce costs in the future, but it is not enough to prevent a significant decline in profits later this year. He said, "Although we believe that artificial intelligence is real and may bring some substantial efficiency to help combat inflation, it is unlikely to prevent our predicted decline in profits this year.

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”The expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon end its tightening policy has also boosted the valuation of stock market stocks, which are usually several times their future profits. When interest rates stop rising and begin to decline, companies' borrowing costs will decrease, and demand will often rebound. This often boosts lower profit rates and increases the attractiveness of stocks relative to savings accounts and bonds. As interest rates decrease, the yield of savings accounts and bonds usually decreases.

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Wilson stated that this may once again distract investors' attention, causing them to overlook the upcoming slowdown in profits, which may hit the stock market later this year. He wrote, "Central bank officials are close to adjusting policies or are already lowering interest rates, which may drive the stock market away from weak fundamentals." In recent days, several Wall Street leaders have expressed optimism that the wave of artificial intelligence may drive the stock market prosperity.

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For example, Edward Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, believes that the rise of generative artificial intelligence like ChatGPT may have spawned another "roaring 1920s" hedge fund giant and Point72 founder Steve Cohen, who also expressed great optimism about the market, believing that investors' excessive focus on recession may lead them to miss out on the "big wave" opportunities brought by artificial intelligence (AI).

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But Wilson's viewpoint is completely opposite to theirs.