Asphalt concrete medium grain type (COFCO trial and error trading: asphalt interval consolidation, b

 

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Market brief comment: today's Wenhua commodities rose more or fell less, and the linkage between sectors was strengthened. The commodity index rose, and the substantial net inflow of funds. Specifically, the soft commodity sector led the commodity market, with cotton breaking 2% in the day, meeting the demand for the intra-day price difference to return to the rising trend; Black chain index and coal plate were stronger in the day, with iron ore leading the rise; In the energy and chemical industry sector, the long funds returned to the crude oil system, driving the plasticizing varieties to rise in the day. Except for the pulp, most of the varieties were stronger; The agricultural products sector also rose more than fell, and the three major oils continued to rebound slightly,.

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Eggs closed at 1.32%, leading the decline of agricultural products. The double-meal continued to be weak. On the whole, the commodity continued the pattern of "industry is strong, agriculture is weak". The trend linkage has been strengthened compared with yesterday. Most sectors rebounded and continued, and the intra-day continuity is still poor. At present, the trend of the Wenhua Index has entered a volatile trend in the short term. The enthusiasm for long has weakened today, and most varieties have declined.

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At present, the macro situation of "strong expectations, weak reality" has not changed. Investors can take a short-term approach, adjust the pace to follow the trend, do a good job of defense, and follow the trend commodity index - comment on the general trend

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Data source: The shock in the shock of Wenhua Finance [structure] [strategy] chose to wait and see [analysis] Today, the Wenhua index rose slightly overnight and then fell, rebounded in the early opening, and then the shock intensified. The funds left the market slightly in the late end, and closed at 0.38%. The linkage between the internal plates and the plates of the index increased.

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At present, there is a short-term adjustment in the operation of the index, which is still in the range of stage shocks, and the overall market environment is still optimistic, but the upward drive is not solid enough. It is also necessary to pay close attention to whether the early bull trend can continue. The cautious people suggest to wait and see, or to observe the varieties in the corresponding sectors in the future will be better asphalt - the first increase.

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Data source: The shock in the rise of Wenhua Finance [structure] [strategy] chose to wait and see or follow the bull's cycle [analysis]. The main contract of liquefied gas rose today, mainly to meet the overnight horizontal consolidation of intra-day price difference. The price rose after the morning and remained high after the afternoon. The price rose at 2.98% in the end, with good price smoothness throughout the day.

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From the perspective of cycle structure, the main asphalt contract started an upward trend at the beginning of December last year, and after entering 23 years, the long trend ended and entered a volatile sideways trend. At present, the price is still in the range of consolidation. The cautious can choose to wait and see, and the radical can choose to follow the long soda ash on the cycle of bargain hunting - the rising trend continues

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Data source: The shock in the rise of Wenhua Finance [Structure] [Strategy] Select the cycle to observe the long trend [Analysis] The overnight trend of the main soda ash contract rose in a narrow range today. The amplitude of the shock increased in the morning, and then rebounded and pulled up after the afternoon dive. In the afternoon, funds came into the market one after another, and the price closed at 0.88% in the end.

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From the perspective of cycle structure, the main force of soda ash started the long market in the middle of November 22. The market developed smoothly and experienced a short-term consolidation platform. At present, the price has entered the second consolidation, and the long trend has not changed temporarily. You can observe the long opportunity Shanghai Nickel - the first decline

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Data source: Wenhua Finance and Economics [structure] fell in the shock [strategy] chose to wait and see [analysis] the main contract of Shanghai Nickel fell today to meet the intra-day price difference overnight, and the price fell steadily after opening high. The price weakened twice in the morning, and remained low in the afternoon for consolidation. Short funds came into the market one after another, ending at 3.02%.

From the perspective of the cycle structure of the whole day's price smoothness, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel ended its upward trend after the end of December last year and entered into a wide range of shocks, forming a "M top" overnight market with poor continuity. There are many short jumps and hatches. At present, the price has reached the top and has fallen below the previous low. The short trend can be observed in the day if the short trend continues.

Rapeseed meal - continued decline

Data source: Wenhua Finance and Economics [structure] fell in the shock [strategy] chose to wait and see or observe the short trend in the day [analysis] Today's rapeseed meal main contract closed down overnight after the low opening price, the broad consolidation, the small rise in the morning, and then continued to go down, the low level consolidation in the afternoon, the fund fluctuated significantly in the day, and closed down at 1.11% in the end, the price smoothness of the whole day was poor.

From the perspective of cycle structure, the main force of rapeseed meal started a wide range of fluctuations at the end of January 23. The market development was more tortuous, with more shadow lines. At present, the price has accelerated to fall, falling through the key point at the lower edge of the downward range, and entering the accelerated decline. You can choose to follow the short trend in the day as the main iron ore - hot spot focus

Data source: The shock in the rise of Wenhua Finance [Structure] [Strategy] Select the cycle to observe the long trend [Analysis] Today's iron ore main contract closed higher overnight and then closed in a narrow range. The price fluctuation in the morning increased, and the long funds entered the market. The price center slightly rose in the afternoon, and the funds gradually flowed in.

At the end of the day, it closed at 1.56%. From the perspective of the general cycle structure of the whole day's market smoothness, the iron ore main force started the long market at the end of October 22, and the market development was relatively smooth in the early stage. After entering the middle of December, the long market growth slowed down and the shocks intensified; At present, the price has broken through the key position on the upper edge of the previous range and has maintained the long trend as a whole. You can choose to observe the long trend in the day or in the cycle.

Cotton - Hot Spots

Data source: The shock in the rise of Wenhua Finance and Economics [structure] [strategy] chose to wait and see [analysis] the main cotton market rose today. After meeting the high opening of the intra-day price difference overnight, the price was consolidated horizontally, and remained flat in the morning. After the long entry in the afternoon, the price steadily rose, and the price continued to rise near the end of the day, closing at 2.125%. The trend of the whole day was good, suitable for intra-day operation.

From the perspective of cycle structure, the main force of cotton has continued the long trend after rebounding from the bottom in November last year. Today, the pullback stops, and the domestic cotton textile enterprises start a small rebound to maintain optimistic expectations of the market after the year. In the short term, we can pay attention to whether the long trend of the cycle can continue the adjustment of the live broadcast time of the [live broadcast room of the Strategic Trading Department]. From now on, from Monday to Thursday, from 19:30-20:10 p.m, Live broadcast of cloud class at 19:30 on Friday evening (it has been updated to 110 issues and continues to be more moderate)

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Risk disclosure: Jiang Mengjun Trading Advisory Certificate No.: Z0013889 Wang Jun Trading Advisory Certificate No.: Z0013698 1. COFCO Futures Co., Ltd. owns the copyright and other related intellectual property rights of this report. Without the permission of COFCO Futures Co., Ltd., no unit or individual may modify part or all of this report in any way.

If it is necessary to indicate that the source of the quotation, reprint and publication is COFCO Futures Co., Ltd. in violation of the above requirements, the company will reserve the right to investigate its relevant legal liabilities. 2. This strategic view is made by researchers based on the information they have, and the actual results may be very different due to conditions. Traders must make independent trading decisions.

The company does not guarantee the trading results. 3. The market is uncertain, and the merger of past strategic views does not guarantee the correctness of current strategic views. The company and other researchers may express opinions different from this strategic view. 4. Within the scope of law, the company or related institutions may trade the involved varieties, or may provide services for the transactions of other companies.

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2023-03-03 栏目:编程控

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