Will artificial intelligence destroy the human world? (Will "artificial intelligence" ruin

 

1. The advantages and disadvantages of artificial intelligence

Since the chat robot ChatGPT of OpenAI became popular on the Internet last November, it has undoubtedly been the hottest topic of discussion in 2023. Recently, training AI models appeared on the Internet, singing Liu Huan's "Song of Heroes" with Sun Yanzi's voice, and making Cyndi Wang sing "Qinghai Tibet Plateau", etc., triggering a wave of craze at home and abroad.

2. Advantages and disadvantages of artificial intelligence

The application of text to generate images and videos is also becoming popular abroad. Soon, consumer products such as Expedia, Instaart, and OpenTable, or robots that will be connected to OpenAI, can allow people to book hotels and order meals through text input. According to reports, a recent leaked presentation by Gu Ge engineers shows that,

3. Debate on the pros and cons of artificial intelligence

Technology giant Google expresses deep concern about the progress made by its competitors in the AI field. At the same time, the rapid development of artificial intelligence has also posed many new challenges. The most direct thing is what impact it will have on the economy. Many people maintain an optimistic attitude towards artificial intelligence and are optimistic about the prospects of AI.

4. Advantages and Disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence PPT

Can Artificial Intelligence in Jiangbei 01 Change the World? According to a study by Gao Shengxin, "the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence may ultimately drive global annual GDP growth of 7%, or nearly 7 trillion US dollars, within 10 years." The study shows that companies adopting artificial intelligence have increased their annual labor productivity growth rate by three percentage points.

5. Discussion Paper on the Advantages and Disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence

This means a huge growth in compound income that will bring years to the company. A study published in 2021 by Tom Davidson of Open Philanthropy, a charity, showed that the likelihood of "explosive growth" (global output increasing by over 30% annually) at some point in the century is more than 10%

6. Advantages and disadvantages of artificial intelligence

However, some economists jokingly claim that global income may become infinitely large. However, the performance of artificial intelligence in the financial market has become more moderate. In the past year, although there has been an increase in recent months, the stock price performance of artificial intelligence companies is lower than the global average. "Natural interest rates" also point to another clue. If people believe that this technology will make everyone richer, then the demand for savings will decrease, Interest rates will also rise accordingly.

7. Advantages and Disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence: 800 Word High School Model Essay

The study by Professor Basil Halperin and colleagues at Massachusetts Institute of Technology points out that inflation adjusted interest rates are closely related to subsequent GDP growth. However, since the artificial intelligence boom in November last year, long-term interest rates have decreased by historical standards, and researchers analyze that long-term interest rates will still be very low,.

8. Advantages and Disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence Paper

To determine which viewpoint is correct in the financial market, it is not highly likely that artificial intelligence will accelerate growth in the time range of at least 30 to 50 years. The economic impact of technological breakthroughs in past history also provides a reference for investors. However, past historical experience is difficult to prove how a new technology will have a positive and negative impact on the economy.

9. Materials on the pros and cons of artificial intelligence

Even the industrial revolution in the late 18th century, many people believed that the invention of the Jenny spinning machine had brought about economic take-off, but in fact it was the result of the joint action of many factors, such as the widespread use of coal, the consolidation of property rights, the emergence of the scientific spirit, etc., and more of the most famous ones were Robert Fogel's works on American railways published in the 1960s, This also earned him the Nobel Prize in Economics later on.

10. Advantages and Disadvantages of Artificial Intelligence Writing 800 Words

Many people believe that the railway has changed the prospects of the United States, bringing the United States from an agricultural society to an industrial power. But Professor Vogel found that, in fact, the impact of the railway is very limited because it only uses one mode of transport to replace another mode of transport, such as canals. River transport had already done well at that time. Even if the railway was not invented, the average income level of Americans would not change significantly.

Of course, no one can accurately predict that it is not impossible for a fundamentally unpredictable technology such as artificial intelligence to lead mankind to runaway growth, and technological stagnation is not alarmist. However, Vogel's railway theory research is probably a powerful reference for thinking from the three fields of monopoly, labor market and productivity.

A new technology may sometimes lead a wealth creation movement, allowing a small group of people to acquire huge wealth, such as the huge wealth accumulated by John D. Rockefeller through oil refining; Henry Ford created a myth with his car.

Today, Ma Huateng, Ma Yun, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and others have created business empires with the help of internet technology. Can artificial intelligence create wealth? Many authoritative figures predict that the artificial intelligence industry will soon generate huge profits. In a recent paper, analysts at Goldman Sachs estimated that,.

In the best case scenario, generative artificial intelligence will increase the annual revenue of global enterprise software by approximately $430 billion. Their calculation assumes that if an average of 1.1 billion office workers worldwide use several artificial intelligence software, and each person points out a total cost of approximately $400 per year, artificial intelligence companies will benefit from it.

However, from a macroeconomic perspective, $430 billion has not changed the situation at all. Assuming that all income is turned into profits is not realistic, but if these profits are all earned in the United States, it becomes more realistic. Even in this case, the ratio of pre tax corporate profits to GDP in the United States has only increased from 12% today to 14%.

Far above the long-term average, but below the level of the second quarter of 2021, these profits may ultimately flow to a company, which is OpenAI. When an industry has high fixed costs or it is difficult to compete, a monopoly usually occurs. For example, customers have no choice but to produce their own oil except for Rockefeller's.

Generative artificial intelligence has some monopoly characteristics. According to reports, the OpenAI chat robot GPT-4 has a training cost of over 100 million US dollars alone. Few companies can achieve such a huge investment, which does not include professional knowledge of training model data and user feedback. Of course, it is also basically impossible for a company to cross all industries.

What's more, a few large companies compete with each other, just like in the fields of aviation, grocery, and search engines. No artificial intelligence product is unique because they all use similar models, so users have more choices. The computing power behind the models is also universal. Most of the code, tips, and techniques can be obtained online for free, This means that amateur can also make good models.

Venture capital firm Anderson Horowitz Fund stated that "there seems to be no systematic moat in the field of generative artificial intelligence nowadays." It is said that the recent Google leak incident has reached a similar conclusion: "The threshold for training and experimentation has dropped from all the results of a major research institution to one person, one night, and a powerful laptop.

”At present, there are some generative artificial intelligence companies with valuations exceeding $1 billion. However, so far, in the new era of artificial intelligence, the biggest winners may not be all artificial intelligence companies, such as Nvidia, which provides computing power support for AI models. The revenue of its data centers is starting to soar. Can artificial intelligence really replace human work?.

Although generative artificial intelligence may not create a new class, for many people, what matters more is their job prospects, especially whether their work will be replaced by artificial intelligence. With the outbreak of artificial intelligence, discussions about how artificial intelligence will replace human work have become rampant in OpenAI.

About 80% of the US workforce, at least 10% of their jobs are affected by artificial intelligence. Edward Felten's team from Princeton University conducted a similar study. Among the industries most likely to face disruption, legal services, accounting, and travel agencies are among the top.

Economists have previously published pessimistic predictions. In 2000, many people were concerned that "factory relocation" would have a significant impact on workers in rich countries. In 2013, two people from Oxford University published a widely cited paper stating that "automation" could eliminate 47% of American jobs in the next decade or so.

Others believe that even without widespread unemployment, there will still be a "hollowing out": that is, rewarding, high paying jobs will disappear and be replaced by low paying jobs that do not require brainpower. However, the fact is that in the past decade, the average unemployment rate in developed countries has decreased by about half, and the employment proportion of the working age population is at the highest level in history. Countries such as Japan, Singapore, and South Korea have the highest penetration rates of automation and robotics technology, The unemployment rate is also the lowest.

A recent study by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics found that in recent years, jobs classified as "at risk" for new technologies have "not shown any obvious general trend of rapid unemployment" and "hollowing out" evidence, which can be described as mixed. In the 2010s, job satisfaction indicators have risen, and for most of the past decade, the wage growth rate of the poorest Americans has been faster than that of the wealthiest.

Of course, this time it may be different. A company that provides homework tutoring, Chegg, said, "ChatGPT has had an impact on our new customer growth rate." After the company's stock price was halved, IBM's CEO said, "We expect to temporarily suspend recruitment for positions that may be replaced by AI in the coming years.

”Is the AI storm about to strike as the mountain rain approaches and the wind fills the building? Yes, or perhaps not imagine that when artificial intelligence automation exceeds 50% of jobs, a job will disappear or the proportion of workers being eliminated is proportional to the total share of automation tasks in the entire economy. In either case, according to professional estimates, this will result in about 15% of net job losses in the United States.

Some people may turn to industries where there is a shortage of workers, such as the hotel industry, but the unemployment rate will certainly rise sharply - perhaps in line with the temporary unemployment rate of 15% in the United States during the worst period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. However, this situation is unlikely to happen. History shows that the rate of job loss is much slower.

In 1892, an automatic telephone switching system was invented to replace manual operators. It was not until 1921 that Bell System installed their first fully automated office. Even after this milestone, the number of telephone operators in the United States continued to grow, reaching a peak of about 350000 in the middle of the 20th century.

It wasn't until the 1980s, 90 years after the invention of the mobile phone switching system, that this profession (mostly) gradually disappeared. Artificial intelligence may have swept the labor market in less than 90 years. Smartphones are easier to use, and the Xu family was surprised by the speed at which the public is integrating smartphones into life. However, this time, the reason for the slow adoption of technology in the workplace also applies.

In a recent article, Andreessen Horowitz's Mark Andreessen outlined some of these situations, while his argument focuses on "regulation" in economic areas where countries are heavily involved, such as education and healthcare. Technological change is often very slow, and lack of competitive pressure weakens the motivation for improvement.

The government may also have public policy goals, such as maximizing employment, which is contrary to improving efficiency. These industries are more likely to form unions to prevent unemployment. Despite partially or completely replacing the skills of London subway drivers, which have existed for decades, the income of London public operated subway drivers is almost twice the national average.

Government agencies require you to fill out paper forms that provide personal information over and over again. In San Francisco, the center of the global artificial intelligence craze, real-life police officers are still employed to command traffic during peak hours. The pros and cons of artificial intelligence. Many jobs threatened by artificial intelligence are in industries that are strictly regulated.

From Professor Felten's paper at Princeton University, it is not difficult to see that among the top 20 professions most related to artificial intelligence, 14 are teaching positions (foreign language teachers are close to the top, geographers have a slightly stronger position), but perhaps no government dares to replace teachers with artificial intelligence, which also applies to police and anti crime artificial intelligence.

Italy has temporarily blocked ChatGPT due to privacy issues, and France, Germany, and Ireland are also reportedly considering this fact, indicating that governments around the world are still very concerned about the destructive impact of artificial intelligence on employment.

Perhaps over time, the government will allow some jobs to be replaced by artificial intelligence, but it will create some space for the economy: while other jobs are eliminated, new jobs are created by reducing production costs. New technologies can create more demand for goods and services, thereby promoting jobs that cannot be automated.

A paper published by David Autor and colleagues at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2020 gave a surprising conclusion that in 1940, about 60% of jobs in the United States did not exist. The addition of the position of "nail technician" and "solar photovoltaic electrician" in the 2000 census was only five years ago.

The artificial intelligence economy is likely to create new professions that are unimaginable today. The moderate impact of the labor market may translate into a moderate impact on productivity. The United States began using electricity in factories and homes in the late 19th century. However, productivity did not prosper until after the end of World War I. The personal computer was invented in the 1970s.

This productivity boom came faster - but it still felt slow at the time. In 1987, economist Robert Solow declared that "except for productivity statistics, the computer age is everywhere." The world is still waiting for a surge in productivity related to recent innovation. Smartphones have been widely used for ten years, billions of people have access to high-speed internet, and many employees can now meet their own needs, Free transition between office and home.

Official surveys show that over one tenth of American employees are already working in companies that use certain types of artificial intelligence, while unofficial surveys indicate a higher number. Despite this, global productivity growth remains weak. Artificial intelligence can ultimately significantly increase productivity in some industries, according to an article by Erik Brynjolfsson and colleagues at Stanford University on "customer support agents", The use of artificial intelligence tools can increase the average number of problems solved per hour by 14%.

Researchers themselves can also become more efficient: GPT-X can provide them with an unlimited number of almost free research assistant. Others hope that AI can eliminate administrative inefficiencies in the field of health care and reduce costs, but there are still many things that AI cannot do, such as blue collar jobs in construction and agriculture, accounting for 20% of the GDP of developed countries.

For pickers, the big language model is basically useless. For plumbers who repair leaking faucets, it may have some use: a small component can identify faucets, diagnose faults, and provide repair suggestions. Nevertheless, plumbers ultimately have to do physical work. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that in a few years, the work efficiency of blue collar workers will be much higher than now.

This also applies to industries where interpersonal contact is an inherent part of services, such as hotels and healthcare. The biggest obstacle to productivity growth in developed countries is the malfunctioning planning system, and artificial intelligence is also powerless. When cities are limited in size and housing costs are high, people are unable to live and work in the most efficient places.

No matter how many innovative new ideas your society has, if you cannot implement them in a timely manner, they are useless in terms of functionality. Eliminating "neighbor avoidance" depends on government technology, which is neither here nor there. Energy is also the same, and licensing and infrastructure are the main reasons for high costs. Even artificial intelligence may reduce economic productivity.

Take a look at some recent technologies where smartphones can achieve instant messaging, but they can also distract people. Through email, you are working 24/7, which makes it difficult for you to concentrate加州大学欧文分校(University of CaliforniaatIrvine)、微软研究院(Microsoft Research)和麻省理工学院(MIT)的研究人员在2016年发表的一篇论文中发现，“。

每天花在电子邮件上的时间越长，被认为效率越低”然而一些老板现在认为，曾经被视为提高工作效率的在家办公，给了人太多偷懒的借口生成式人工智能本身可能会消耗生产力例如，如果人工智能可以根据你的每一个愿望完美地创造娱乐，会发生什么？此外，很少有人想过可以立即生成大量文本的系统的含义。

GPT-4对于面临规划申请壁垒来说是天赐之物它可以在五分钟内拿出一份1000页的反对意见然后必须有人对此做出回应垃圾邮件将更难被发现欺诈案件可能会激增银行需要花更多的钱来防止攻击和赔偿损失的人在一个人工智能盛行的世界里，律师会成倍增加。

布朗·鲁德尼克律师事务所的普雷斯顿·伯恩表示:“在20世纪70年代，你可以在15页纸上完成一笔数百万美元的交易，因为重新打字是一件很痛苦的事情”人工智能将使我们能够在初稿中涵盖1,000个最有可能的边缘案例，然后双方将为此争论数周。

美国的经验法则是，除非你希望得到25万美元或更多的赔偿，否则起诉损害赔偿是没有意义的，因为你需要花那么多钱上法庭现在，诉讼费用可能降至接近于零与此同时，教师和编辑需要检查他们审阅的内容，是不是由人工智能编写的。

OpenAI发布了一个程序，可以做到这一点因此OpenAI正在为世界提供解决其技术造成的问题的办法人工智能可能会以今天无法想象的方式改变世界但这并不完全等同于让经济发生天翻地覆的变化同样关于人工智能取代人类工作，更多的是一种焦虑。

就像文中所言，第一，这个过程的发展是十分缓慢的；第二，当人工智能真正取代一种职业的时候，或许将创造一个全新的职业参考资料：《你的工作可能不会受到人工智能的影响》，经济学人举报/反馈